From time to time we like to check how Arizona is doing compared with the other states. For this purpose, the Core Logic Home Price Insights Report is a useful source.
According to Core Logic’s report, which is based on data at the end of September, Arizona was one of the 5 states with the furthest to go to reach the height of pricing at the peak of the housing bubble.
- Nevada 31.4% below peak
- Florida 22.5% below peak
- Arizona 22.0% below peak
- Connecticut 19.1% below peak
- Maryland 18.7% below peak
There are now 15 states (plus the District of Columbia) which are making new price highs, having exceeded the levels at the peak of the bubble:
- Arkansas
- Colorado
- Iowa
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- North Carolina
- Nebraska
- New York
- Oregon
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Washington
Core Logic provides 12 month forecasts for home price appreciation, though their track record for getting them correct is not brilliant. For what it’s worth, Arizona is among the highest group:
- California 9.0%
- Nevada 8.9%
- New Hampshire 7.1%
- Florida 7.0%
- Arizona 6.6%
- Michigan 6.3%
- Oregon 6.1%
The lowest appreciation is forecast for the states most affected by the fall in energy prices:
- North Dakota 1.7%
- Wyoming 1.7%
- Texas 2.6%
- Montana 2.8%
- Oklahoma 3.1%
- Mississippi 3.1%
- Louisiana 3.4%
These are still positive however.
In the last 12 months two states have experienced negative home price appreciation: Alaska -0.3% and Connecticut -1.4%. Core Logic is forecasting that this will reverse over the next year, since they forecast 5.4% and 4.8% for these two states.
Commentary
After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained a lot of upward momentum over the last 2 months. However that upward momentum is petering out now and increases in the rest of the year are likely to be modest. Nevertheless it still seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.
Currently we are seeing additional supply arriving for the West Valley, especially Surprise, while supply in parts of the Southeast Valley is becoming tighter, especially in Chandler. On its own this change is likely to cool average pricing a little because the future sales mix will slightly favor the cheaper homes in the West Valley which sell extremely quickly.
Information & Data Provided by The Cromford Report.
